AI generated NFL picks EV + SPA

 🏈 NFL EV + SPA — Week 1 Blog



 Post Title: NFL Week 1 — EV + SPA Picks
Date:** September 7, 2025  
Starting Bankroll: $100  
Staking Plan: 100% Deployed ($45 JAX ML, $45 TB ML, $10 Parlay)


 📊 Weekly Bankroll Tracker
| Week | Start | Risked | Won/Lost | End | ROI % |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 1 | $100 | $100 | +$78.46 | $178.46 | 78.46% |


 📈 Season-Long Tracker
| Week | Start | End | Weekly ROI % | Cumulative ROI % |
|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 1 | $100 | $178.46 | 78.46% | 78.46% |
| 2 | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| 3 | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |
| … | … | … | … | … |
| 18 | TBD | TBD | TBD | TBD |


 🔑 Straight Bets

 Pick 1: Jacksonville Jaguars ML (−160)
 Stake: $45  
 Fair Price (No Vig): −175 (63.6%)  
 Edge: +2.1%  
 SPA: Medium–High  
 Payout if Win: $73.13 ($28.13 profit)  
 Result: WIN

 Pick 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML (−135)
 Stake: $45  
 Fair Price (No Vig): −140 (58.3%)  
 Edge: +0.9% (EV ≈ +$0.69)  
 SPA: Medium  
 Payout if Win: $78.33 ($33.33 profit)  
 **Result: WIN**



 🎲 Parlay Card
 Legs: Jaguars ML × Buccaneers ML  
 Stake: $10  
 Odds: +170  
 Fair Odds: +160  
 Edge: Small +EV  
 SPA: Medium  
 Payout if Win: $27.00 ($17.00 profit)  
 Result: WIN



 📝 Recap & Notes
Week 1 Recap:** 3–0 sweep (JAX ML, TB ML, Parlay). Bankroll +$78.46 → $178.46.  
Key Market Moves:** JAX held steady, TB moved +115 → −135.  



 📌 Footer
NFL EV + SPA — Week 1.** Lines locked at time of post; track CLV separately. EV computed via no-vig fair price; SPA = matchup confidence overlay.