🏈 NFL EV + SPA Picks — Week1

Date: September 7, 2025
Starting Bankroll: $100
Staking Plan: 100% Deployed

📊 Running Bankroll Tracker

🔑 Straight Bets

Pick 1: Jacksonville Jaguars ML (−160)

• Stake: $45
• Fair Price (No Vig): −175 (63.6%)
• Edge: +2.1%
• SPA: Medium–High
• Payout if Win: $73.13 ($28.13 profit)

Pick 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML (−135)

• Stake: $45
• Fair Price (No Vig): −140 (58.3%)
• Edge: +0.9% (58.3% fair vs 57.5% book implied); EV ≈ +$0.69 on $45
• SPA: Medium
• Payout if Win: $78.33 ($33.33 profit)

🎲 Parlay

• Legs: Jaguars ML + Buccaneers ML
• Stake: $10
• Odds: +170
• Payout if Win: $27.00 ($17.00 profit)